AGP Executive Report

Fuel & Refining: Iraq’s Oil Ministry denied plans to export gasoline immediately after bringing an FCC unit online, saying the priority is domestic self-sufficiency first, as regional tensions keep delaying tanker shipments and Baghdad sees long queues. Agriculture: Iraq achieved self-sufficiency in wheat and dates for the 2026 season, with new salt- and stress-tolerant wheat seeds and long-term subsidized irrigation support. Oil Exports & Shipping: TankerTrackers says Iraq’s oil exports fell 36% in August versus pre-war levels amid the US-Iran conflict, while Hormuz disruption continues to reshape regional trade. Trade Disruption: Thai rice shipments to Iraq are being rerouted overland via Jordan and Türkiye as Hormuz-linked shipping disruptions shift routes. Anti-Corruption: Iraq’s Federal Integrity Commission arrested five staff over alleged violations in the renovation of Al-Hussein Teaching Hospital in Al-Muthanna, citing cost discrepancies, delays, and stalled equipment. Infrastructure & Transport: KRG says the Erbil–Soran road (Korre–Shaqlawa–Qandil) is 70% complete, targeting an October opening and cutting travel time by 30+ minutes. Security: A leadership change is expected in Kirkuk Operations Command, with Lt. Gen. Ali Fadel Al-Mafraji nominated to take over from Maj. Gen. Maad Badai Al-Daraji. Industry & Energy Finance: The US sanctioned a Turkish bank tied to an Iranian oil-evasion scheme, targeting Ziraat Bankasi’s Dubai branch and affiliates.

Iraq Oil Exports: Iraq’s oil shipments fell 36% in August versus pre-Iran-war levels, with TankerTrackers citing the wider Gulf disruption as shipments struggle to keep pace. Fuel & Transport Pressure: Fuel shortages are back in Baghdad and central/southern provinces, with long queues and many closed stations; the Oil Ministry links the gap to delayed gasoline shipments amid conflict-linked tanker movement. Energy Logistics Shift: TankerTrackers says about 7 million barrels of oil and gas are preparing to transit Hormuz under US protection, but commercial crossings remain below recent averages. Agriculture Security: Iraq says it reached self-sufficiency in wheat (third straight season) and dates in 2026, supported by climate-tolerant seeds and subsidized irrigation. Regional Trade Signals: Jordan’s Amman Chamber reports export certificates rising 20.7% to JD1.031bn in the first eight months, with Iraq the top importer by value. Defense & Industry Link: The US approved a possible $150m sale of Bell 412EPX helicopters to Iraq to boost airlift for troops, medical and logistics transport. Power Sector: Iraq’s Electricity Ministry met GE to discuss expanding the Mansuriya power station and adding combined-cycle units.

Oil Revenues: Iraq’s Ministry of Oil says August crude exports hit about 70 million barrels, bringing nearly $4.5 billion in preliminary revenues, with average daily exports topping 2 million barrels after bottlenecks eased. Fuel Supply & Prices: Iraq’s Oil Minister says gasoline shipments are on the way and consumption is being closely monitored, as fuel queues persist and the ministry points to a production-versus-demand gap plus delayed tanker arrivals. Agri Self-Sufficiency: Iraq announced wheat and date self-sufficiency for 2026, citing new salt- and climate-tolerant seed varieties and long-term subsidized irrigation support, alongside a rise in date palms to about 22 million. Transport & Energy Transition: Baghdad’s “Green Taxi” plan is moving forward amid the gasoline crunch, with charging facilities planned and a possible contract to import thousands of electric taxis. Trade & Industry Links: Iraq and Syria held talks to boost trade, with emphasis on expanding Iraqi cement and asphalt exports to Syrian markets. Power Sector Governance: An Iraqi lawmaker warns corruption in electricity contracts is fueled by weak procurement oversight, pushing for new “internal oversight” rules before contracts are signed. Construction & Services: Budget delays are stalling Karbala school projects, leaving the province owing contractors and facing major overcrowding pressures.

Iraq Heritage Under Pressure: Iraq’s State Board of Antiquities and Heritage denied claims that archaeological sites are being destroyed for housing, saying projects can only proceed after rescue excavation, documentation, and clearance under Iraqi law. Oil & Shipping Shockwaves: Renewed US-Iran fighting is keeping Strait of Hormuz risk high, with oil prices on track for their steepest weekly gain since mid-July and diesel hitting record highs—raising costs that ripple into transport and industry. Regional Air and Logistics Disruption: Flight delays and cancellations continue as the US-Iran escalation affects air corridors, including routes into and out of Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Iraq’s Industrial Push: Iraq is moving on pipeline and export capacity plans, including studies for a Basra–Haditha network and efforts to expand crude export outlets. Food Supply Signals: Rice prices are rising on tighter supplies and weather concerns, with Iraq showing up as a buyer via Turkey and Jordan. Corporate Interest in Iraq: PepsiCo is reportedly expanding regional production with Iraq highlighted as a key focus market.

Iraq’s Oil Security Under Strain: A parliamentary finance official warned that failure to bring weapons under state control could trigger tougher international pressure and even an “economic shutdown” if oil exports are disrupted; Iraq’s crude exports rose to about 2.34m bpd in August, but remain below pre-war levels. Energy Infrastructure Push: Iraq has started studies for a 2m bpd Basra–Haditha–Syria pipeline network to cut reliance on Hormuz routes, with construction estimated at 24–48 months. Gas Development Partnerships: Midland Oil Company is seeking U.S. partners to develop gas fields in Diyala and Anbar, aiming for integrated processing facilities. Agriculture Boost in Nineveh: Two new seed cleaning and treatment lines began operations, lifting Nineveh’s capacity to 30 tons per hour, with added storage to support wheat intake. Food Supply Stress in Fisheries: Iraq’s fish industry is collapsing amid unclear causes of die-offs, with production down sharply since 2018 and lab testing often missing. Regional Conflict Fallout: The U.S.-Iran escalation continues to roil Gulf shipping and energy expectations, keeping markets jumpy and raising costs that can spill into Iraq’s economy.

Rail & Trade Links: Iraq’s Basra–Shalamcheh rail line connecting southern Iraq to Iran’s Khuzestan is reported at 70% completion, with demining finished on 16 km of the Iranian side and plans for a free-trade zone and industrial center at Shalamcheh to boost cross-border industry. Jobs & Oil-Sector Hiring Pressure: In Basra and Al-Anbar, science, engineering, and contract workers staged protests demanding job placements tied to oil and technical qualifications; demonstrators blocked major company gates in Basra and reported forceful dispersal. Gulf Energy Shock Risk: Renewed US-Iran strikes and retaliation are again tightening expectations around Strait of Hormuz shipping, with oil prices swinging near six-week highs as investors weigh supply disruption risk. Industrial Security Tech: The US Marine Corps is seeking high-resolution 3D scanners to detect cracks in body armor plates, signaling more advanced inspection demand across defense supply chains.

Middle East Energy Shock: The US and Iran traded the heaviest strikes since July, with Washington hitting Iran’s southern coast and Tehran firing at US bases across Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, UAE, and Iraq’s Kurdistan region, while Iran accused the US of striking a wedding in Sirik (“war crime”). Oil Market Fallout: Brent settled about 1% higher near $95.6 as Hormuz shipping risk spiked; the Strait’s traffic reportedly fell sharply, and prices swung on fears of supply disruption. Iraq Export Resilience: Despite the Hormuz crisis, Iraq’s oil exports jumped about 73% in August to around 2.34M bpd, helped by steep discounts, smaller tankers, and ship-to-ship transfers off Oman. Opec+ Watch: Reuters reports Opec+ is likely to keep output policy unchanged, with Iraq included among core members. Regional Diplomacy: Qatar reiterated support for de-escalation and freedom of maritime navigation as the crisis deepened.

Kurdistan Security: Iran carried out drone and missile attacks targeting the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDPI) dissident group near Erbil, with IRGC-linked media also claiming strikes on US forces in Iraq’s autonomous Kurdistan region, as the US-Iran standoff intensifies. Regional Escalation: The US and Iran traded retaliatory strikes after renewed US attacks on Iranian military targets near the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran accusing the US of bombing a wedding in Sirik (killing at least five and wounding dozens) and the US denying civilian targeting. Iraq Energy Watch: Iraq’s oil exports rebounded to about 2.34 million bpd in August, up from roughly 1.35 million bpd in July, helped by more tankers loading at Iraqi terminals as Hormuz disruption eased. Oilfield Engineering: The Iraqi Drilling Company completed a 4,152m horizontal well (EBS-157) in South East Baghdad, marking a technical milestone for directional drilling in complex reservoirs. Defense-Industry Link: The US approved an $800M military helicopter sale to Iraq, while the wider conflict keeps pressure on regional security and logistics.

Agriculture & Food Security: Iraq’s Cabinet banned agricultural imports until the end of the domestic production season and approved a draft law to create a Food and Drug Authority, aiming to tighten food security and regulate quality. Industrial Policy & Infrastructure: The government also approved restructuring of World Bank-funded water and sewage projects in Baghdad and pushed a plan for one million serviced residential plots, while energy-sector workers protested higher electricity tariffs and demanded permanent jobs and 2027 budget funding. Oil & Gas Expansion: Iraq’s PM Ali al-Zaidi called for boosting oil output to 10 million bpd by 2030, including expanding Kurdistan production, ramping exploration, and recovering associated gas to cut waste and imports. Security & Trade Logistics: The US approved up to $800m in Bell helicopter sales to Iraq for reconnaissance and air-to-surface targeting, supporting rotary-wing transport and sensors. Regional Digital Economy: Ooredoo and UNDP, with Iraq’s participation, convened Arab digital and AI policy leaders in Doha to accelerate inclusive digital economy implementation across the region. Energy Market Pressure: Coverage also highlighted how Iran-US escalation is reshaping shipping and energy flows around the Strait of Hormuz, keeping regional costs and risks elevated for oil and logistics.

Defense & Aviation Procurement: The U.S. State Department has approved a possible $800M Foreign Military Sale to Iraq for Bell 407M armed reconnaissance helicopters and Bell 412EPX utility helicopters, plus weapons, sensors, training, and logistics—aimed at boosting Iraq’s rotary-wing transport, surveillance, and air-to-surface strike capacity. Energy Infrastructure: Iraq’s Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has ordered the Oil Ministry to fast-track a $4.6B Basra–Haditha cross-country crude pipeline network, creating new export routes via Turkey’s Ceyhan and onward to Syria’s Mediterranean coast to reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz. Housing & Industrial Savings: Iraq has launched a drive to distribute one million serviced residential plots to propertyless families, while the government says it has implemented reforms at the Iraqi Oil Refining Company targeting about $15B in annual budget savings. Agriculture Risk Management: Duhok in Iraqi Kurdistan reported 10 crop fires during the 2026 harvest season, damaging grain and pasture and causing estimated losses of 141.7 million dinars, with firefighting teams deployed across multiple areas.

Oil & Gas Infrastructure: Iraq’s oil ministry says it’s speeding up a major pipeline project to Turkey and Syria, aiming to move crude exports away from the Strait of Hormuz, with capacity near 2.2 million bpd and routes from Basra through Haditha to Fishkhabour, plus a Haditha–Baniyas link. Energy Partnerships: Iraq’s Oil Minister Basim Khudair met BP and ConocoPhillips to discuss expanding hydrocarbon development; the Kirkuk BP contract is being ramped toward higher output and includes associated gas capture to cut flaring. Maritime Compliance: SOMO denied links to the sanctioned tanker BINARY STAR, saying it only deals with screened, compliant vessels and uses monitoring systems when AIS data is hidden or manipulated. Industrial Policy Push: Iraq is allocating land for industrial projects—100 hectares per province in one move and 250 hectares per province in another—signaling a broader push to expand manufacturing and services capacity. Regional Trade Risk: With Hormuz tensions still driving uncertainty, Iraq’s push for alternative export routes underscores how quickly shipping chokepoints can reshape investment priorities.

Agribusiness & Food Security: Iraq imported nearly 90,000 tons of potatoes worth about $52.4m in 2025, spotlighting a domestic production and post-harvest gap and pushing calls for investment in productivity, storage, and marketing. Budget & Public Works: The cabinet will vote on Iraq’s 2027 federal budget in September, with a deficit capped at 3% and new electricity and development allocations for Saladin and Al-Diwaniyah. Water & Irrigation Risk: A watchdog warns Iraq may not fully benefit from higher Euphrates flows from Syria due to sediment buildup, weak dredging, limited transfer capacity, and poor real-time coordination. Oil Exports & Logistics: Iraq’s fuel oil exports through Syria climbed to 21.4m barrels from March to end-August as Baghdad builds alternative routes while Hormuz remains disrupted. Basra Energy & Maritime Claims: Basra’s Popular Movement says a Kuwait gas-processing project near Al-Zour could affect Tuwaynah development and urges Baghdad to protect maritime claims through diplomatic and legal steps. Industrial Policy: Iraq plans to speed up construction of a strategic oil pipeline network, while also allocating industrial land to provinces (100 and 250 hectares reported). Defense Industry Link: A pact to co-produce the US Javelin missile system in India highlights regional manufacturing and supply-chain ambitions that could ripple into defense procurement networks.

Industrial Land Allocation: Iraq’s Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi ordered authorities to allocate 250 hectares per province for industrial projects (and separately 100 hectares per province), targeting priority sectors like food processing, pharmaceuticals, and construction materials, while also banning exports of some metal raw materials to boost local manufacturing. Anti-Corruption Crackdown: Iraq’s anti-corruption court sentenced the deputy oil minister for distribution affairs, Ali Al Bahadli, to seven years and imposed multimillion-dollar fines, alongside a former MP, Talal Al Zubaie, in separate cases tied to illicit gains and money laundering. Oil & Energy Operations: Kurdistan resumed oil production at most fields after drone attacks, reaching up to 230,000 bpd (with Sarsang still damaged), as Iraq pushes alternative export routes amid Hormuz disruption. Water & Agriculture: Increased Euphrates flows from Syria have reached Iraq’s Anbar province, with officials saying levels are under control; in Duhok, sumac harvesting is underway across millions of trees, with demand from Europe and the US supporting prices. Security & Urban Management: Baghdad will deploy drones to detect illegal land encroachments after deadly clashes during crackdown operations in Al-Dora. Diplomacy: Iraq urged dialogue between Iran and the US to de-escalate the standoff affecting West Asia.

Baghdad Security & Land Governance: Iraq will deploy drones across Baghdad to spot and stop illegal land encroachments, forming a central committee with local teams after a deadly Al-Dora clash that killed a senior Baghdad Municipality security official and wounded others. Kurdistan Oil Restart: Iraqi Kurdistan has resumed oil production at all fields except Sarsang after drone attacks, lifting output to about 220,000–230,000 bpd as companies return to work. Banking Reform Pressure: Iraq’s banking sector is at a “critical crossroads,” with calls for stronger governance, anti-money laundering controls, bank restructuring, capital increases, and upgrades to digital payments and cybersecurity to rebuild public confidence. Energy Trade Shock: U.S. crude imports from Iraq reportedly fell to zero last week, while Iraq’s broader export recovery continues via alternative routes amid Hormuz disruption. Industry & Investment Links: Iraq is pushing closer trade and investment ties with Australia, especially in oil, energy, and food, and signed a Japan JICA water-sector MoU to improve drinking water infrastructure in central and southern provinces. Construction & Tech Partnerships: Erbil’s construction exhibition is drawing 450+ exhibitors and B2B talks focused on modern building tech, sustainable energy, and turning MoUs into on-the-ground projects.

Hormuz Tensions: Iran’s state-linked sources challenged US claims that the southern Strait of Hormuz route is “normally” operating, saying Washington is running a psychological campaign while Iran keeps defensive measures in place; Regional Trade & Energy: Iran also said any Oman-linked Hormuz understanding won’t take effect until the US honors commitments under the Islamabad MoU, keeping the strait effectively closed unless coordinated with Tehran; Industrial Push in Iraq: Al-Rutba in Anbar is pitching its water, minerals and power network to attract agricultural, industrial and logistics projects, citing assets like silica, phosphate, iron ore and electricity infrastructure plus improved security; Construction & Tech Investments: Erbil’s International Construction and Building Exhibition drew 450+ exhibitors and B2B meetings focused on modern building tech, sustainable energy and infrastructure solutions; Baghdad Environment Alert: a sulfur-like toxic odor returned across Baghdad neighborhoods, with Green Iraq Observatory pointing to untreated industrial emissions and open burning; Cross-border Industry Signals: Jordan reported industrial export growth of 8.9% to JD4.4bn in H1, with chemicals/cosmetics and construction leading—plus rising exports to markets including Iraq and the UAE.

Baghdad’s Air Quality Alert: A toxic sulfur-like odor returned across residential districts, with the Green Iraq Observatory pointing to high-sulfur fuel use in power and industrial sites, smoke from the Al-Daura refinery, and unregulated waste burning—raising fresh health fears. Energy & Industry Push: Iraq’s Ministry of Electricity says a 750MW solar project in Muthanna is moving ahead with PowerChina, targeting 250MW online before summer 2027. Housing Crisis in Focus: A deadly clash during Baghdad’s Al-Dora crackdown on unauthorized homes spotlighted Iraq’s informal settlement problem—millions of residents, weak enforcement, and stalled legislation. Basra Oil Export Strategy: Iraq’s SOMO launched a second tender to sell Basra crude outside the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to reduce chokepoint risk as regional shipping remains under strain. Regional Shipping Update: Iran and Oman agreed on a temporary corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, with reopening tied to conditions from Washington—an important signal for trade and logistics planning.