AGP Executive Report

Digital Agriculture: Iraq’s Ministry of Agriculture is studying a digital marketing platform to link farmers with local and international buyers, using real-time price data, secure payments, and delivery guarantees to cut intermediary exploitation. Energy Tech & Cybersecurity: Iraq’s General Company for Gas Filling and Services in Baghdad launched a Security Operations Centre and Technology Operations Centre, plus an electronic liquid gas movement tracking system to improve monitoring, continuity, and inventory reporting. Jobs & Skills: Iraq signed a four-year “Decent Work” Country Programme (2026-2029) with unions, industry, and the ILO, targeting skills for inclusive employment, job creation through diversification, and stronger workers’ rights and social protection. Education Pressure: Iraq is short over 10,000 schools, relying on mud-built and caravan schools and forcing double/triple shifts that reduce learning time. Oil & Shipping Shock: With Brent back above $100 amid US-Iran escalation, reports say a tanker carrying about 2M barrels of Iraqi oil was hit by a drone in Iraqi waters, while regional shipping disruptions keep pressure on Iraq’s export flows.

Militia Disarmament Deadline: Iraqi PM Ali al-Zaidi faces a credibility test as Iran-backed Shi’ite militias resist his push to hand weapons to the state by Sept. 30, the same date tied to the remaining US-led coalition withdrawal. Shipping Under Fire: The US-Iran “tanker war” is intensifying, with drone and missile attacks hitting commercial vessels, including a Panama-flagged tanker carrying Iraqi fuel oil, raising risks for Iraq’s southern exports and Gulf logistics. Fuel Crisis in Mosul: Security forces dispersed truck drivers protesting fuel shortages in Mosul, while Diyala officials report generator-fuel depletion and heavy reliance on the national grid, slowing public services. Oil Revenue Squeeze at Hormuz: An Iraqi petroleum economist says transit tolls paid to Iran for Hormuz passage can drain nearly a third of Iraq’s oil earnings, with lawmakers warning of potential US secondary sanctions. OPEC+ Capacity Push: Iraq has formally requested raising its OPEC+ production baseline to 6 million bpd in an audit, aiming to close the gap between quota and real output. Iran-Iraq Trade Target: The Iran-Iraq Joint Chamber of Commerce says bilateral trade could reach $20B if banking and procedural barriers are eased. Agriculture & Prices: In Jordan, Karak olive growers expect a stronger harvest after heavy rains, which could push local olive oil prices down—an angle that matters for regional food supply planning.

Iraq Oil & Gas Expo: Iraq kicked off the 4th International Exhibition and Conference for Oil, Gas and Petroleum Projects in Baghdad, with Iraqi officials and major Chinese firms highlighting technology transfer and long-term cooperation. Refining Push: The oil ministry approved projects to expand Diwaniyah and Maysan refineries by about 140,000 bpd, aiming to boost output, improve product quality, and cut import dependence. Exports Bounce Back: Iraq’s crude exports climbed back above 3 million bpd in September after earlier disruptions tied to Strait of Hormuz shipping shocks, with Baghdad citing restored access via the northern export route with Turkey. Regional Energy Links: Iraq and Turkey reaffirmed support for the Development Road connectivity project, while Baghdad also moved on oil refining and gas cooperation themes. Tourism & Heritage: Iraq’s archaeological and tourism potential is being held back by weak infrastructure and services, with calls for a national strategy and better coordination. Security/Trade Risk: US strikes disabled five Iran-linked oil tankers tied to an IRGC “shadow network,” underscoring how maritime risks keep pressuring regional energy flows and costs. Humanitarian Watch: A monitor report said cluster munitions caused 1,063 deaths and injuries in 2025, including in Iraq, with civilians making up most casualties.

Agriculture & Rural Livelihoods: Farmers in Wasit’s Sheikh Saad district blocked a main highway with tractors and combine harvesters, protesting rising diesel prices and delayed crop payments; a parliamentary agriculture committee member said farmers are owed about 1.5 trillion Iraqi dinars. Public Finance & Appointments: In Baghdad, Iraq’s Finance Ministry ordered administrative reshuffles across several institutions, including removing a director-general and naming an acting head at the Agricultural Cooperative Bank amid claims that political pressure stalled earlier changes. Oilfield Labor & Production Risk: At West Qurna-2 in Basra, engineering and technical staff threatened a general strike unless employment contracts are regularized and overdue wages are paid within a week, warning of potential disruption to extraction and exports. Energy Market Pressure: Brent climbed to a six-week high near $98.5 as renewed US-Iran tensions raised fears of Strait of Hormuz disruptions, while Iraq’s exposure to regional shipping shocks remains a key industrial concern. Animal Health: Foot-and-mouth disease serotype SAT-1 has reappeared after decades, with reports linking new cases across parts of Europe and the Middle East, including Iraq’s earlier 2025 detections—raising fresh risks for livestock supply chains. Security & Civil Service Tensions: University graduates and degree holders clashed with police outside the Finance Ministry in Baghdad over central hiring quotas in the 2027 budget, escalating pressure on state recruitment and workforce planning.

Strait of Hormuz & Iraq diplomacy: Iraq’s FM Fuad Hussein met Arab League chief Nabil Fahmy in Cairo to push dialogue and reduce escalation, warning that Hormuz navigation disruptions could hit Arab economies, including Iraq. Oil infrastructure & refining: Iraq and Turkey agreed on a joint oil refinery in Ceyhan as part of a broader pipeline deal, aiming to process Iraqi crude and boost refined exports to Europe. Oil sector jobs: Iraq’s Oil Minister asked the Council of Ministers to approve hiring for petroleum institute graduates and permanent appointments for contract and daily-wage workers at state oil companies, after protests by graduates in Baghdad and Basra. Kirkuk governance in oil: Kurdish lawmakers urged Iraq’s oil ministry to intervene over alleged unfair management practices at North Oil Company, threatening legal and parliamentary oversight. Urban enforcement sparks backlash: Baghdad urged to freeze housing enforcement campaigns as demolition/removal of homes on agricultural land faces deadly clashes and residents challenge the legality of property clearances. Environment & public health: Aynda warned of worsening air pollution across Iraq and the Kurdistan Region, citing unregulated refineries, vehicle emissions, generators, and waste burning. Basic services in KRI: Tafga residents in Sulaymaniyah reported severe water, road, and heating-fuel shortages worsening as winter nears. ISIS crackdown in KRI: Counter-terrorism forces in Bazian arrested an ISIS logistics and support suspect linked to operations after fleeing to Syria and returning to Iraq. OPEC+ keeps quotas steady: OPEC+ producers, including Iraq, agreed to hold October quotas at September levels as Hormuz disruption and regional uncertainty continue to shape supply.

Oil & Trade: OPEC+ kept October quotas unchanged after a Sept. 6 virtual review, with Iraq’s target set at 4.431 mbpd, as Iran-war disruptions keep Strait of Hormuz shipping risky and oil benchmarks climb. Energy Security: US-Iran tit-for-tat strikes hit Iranian-linked tankers and Iran warns of a new “restricted” maritime zone, adding pressure to regional logistics and longer routes. Local Industry & Construction: Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court upheld Nineveh Provincial Council’s decision lifting construction restrictions in Qaza Fakhra and Jliyokhan on the Nineveh Plains, clearing the way for residential plot subdivision and building permits. Automotive Market: Ford appointed Shimal Al Jazeera Auto-Trading and Commercial Agencies (SAT) as its Iraq distributor from Oct. 1, taking over vehicle sales, parts, and aftersales services. Agribusiness: New seed processing lines opened in Nineveh, while Iraq also pushes wider capacity in agriculture and food supply. Governance & Oversight: Parliament targets Iraq’s soaring medicine prices, and lawmakers warn of corruption risks in the electricity sector as contract oversight tightens.

OPEC+ Oil Policy: OPEC+ kept crude output unchanged for October after a virtual meeting, with Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman holding September levels as Iran-war disruptions keep the Strait of Hormuz tight and limit how much extra oil actually reaches buyers. Kirkuk Energy Update: Iraq’s North Oil Company denied false “gas leak” claims at the Bai Hassan field in Kirkuk, saying operations and production are normal. Iraq Agriculture: Diyala’s date sector is set to reach about 150,000 tonnes in the 2026 season, up roughly 20,000 tonnes year-on-year, as cultivation expands with more Barhi and Medjool palms. Health & Consumer Protection: Iraq’s parliament formed a temporary committee to tackle soaring medicine prices and pharmacy exploitation, including moves to improve prescription clarity and stop doctors from steering patients to specific pharmacies. Banking Stability: Iraq’s Central Bank said most depositors’ funds at Al-Taif Islamic Bank are guaranteed and it will intervene if needed, alongside ongoing banking reforms. Infrastructure Spending: Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi ordered 30 billion dinars for Al-Diwaniyah Stadium to speed construction and finish the 30,000-seat project. Regional Security/Trade: Iraq and the Kurdistan Region were urged to deepen intelligence cooperation as attacks continue amid wider regional unrest.

Iraq–Jordan Trade: Amman Chamber says Iraq topped its export destinations, with $585.2M in Jordanian exports certified in the first eight months of 2026. Oil & Exports: Iraq’s oil minister says crude export capacity has climbed to over 3M bpd since early September, with plans to reach 5M bpd after strategic pipelines and terminals come online to reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz. OPEC+ Watch: OPEC+ kept its October output policy unchanged, but analysts warn the group’s influence is limited as Iran-war disruptions affect real barrels reaching markets; focus now shifts to 2027 quotas. Shipping Pressure: Iran and the US traded strikes involving tankers and naval assets, keeping Hormuz risk high and pushing energy uncertainty. Jobs & Industry: Petroleum institute graduates protested in Baghdad and Basra demanding oil-sector hiring; the Oil Ministry says it needs more staff for its companies and contracting firms. Food & Water Resources: Nineveh released 400,000 carp fingerlings into the Tigris to boost fish stocks and support local livelihoods. Banking & Sanctions: A sanctions expert argues US pressure on Iraqi banks won’t stop Iraq–Iran trade because much commerce moves outside the dollar. Energy Demand Signals: US EIA data shows Iraqi crude imports to the US resumed at 38,000 bpd in the week ending Aug. 28.

Fuel & Refining: Iraq’s Oil Ministry denied plans to export gasoline immediately after bringing an FCC unit online, saying the priority is domestic self-sufficiency first, as regional tensions keep delaying tanker shipments and Baghdad sees long queues. Agriculture: Iraq achieved self-sufficiency in wheat and dates for the 2026 season, with new salt- and stress-tolerant wheat seeds and long-term subsidized irrigation support. Oil Exports & Shipping: TankerTrackers says Iraq’s oil exports fell 36% in August versus pre-war levels amid the US-Iran conflict, while Hormuz disruption continues to reshape regional trade. Trade Disruption: Thai rice shipments to Iraq are being rerouted overland via Jordan and Türkiye as Hormuz-linked shipping disruptions shift routes. Anti-Corruption: Iraq’s Federal Integrity Commission arrested five staff over alleged violations in the renovation of Al-Hussein Teaching Hospital in Al-Muthanna, citing cost discrepancies, delays, and stalled equipment. Infrastructure & Transport: KRG says the Erbil–Soran road (Korre–Shaqlawa–Qandil) is 70% complete, targeting an October opening and cutting travel time by 30+ minutes. Security: A leadership change is expected in Kirkuk Operations Command, with Lt. Gen. Ali Fadel Al-Mafraji nominated to take over from Maj. Gen. Maad Badai Al-Daraji. Industry & Energy Finance: The US sanctioned a Turkish bank tied to an Iranian oil-evasion scheme, targeting Ziraat Bankasi’s Dubai branch and affiliates.

Iraq Oil Exports: Iraq’s oil shipments fell 36% in August versus pre-Iran-war levels, with TankerTrackers citing the wider Gulf disruption as shipments struggle to keep pace. Fuel & Transport Pressure: Fuel shortages are back in Baghdad and central/southern provinces, with long queues and many closed stations; the Oil Ministry links the gap to delayed gasoline shipments amid conflict-linked tanker movement. Energy Logistics Shift: TankerTrackers says about 7 million barrels of oil and gas are preparing to transit Hormuz under US protection, but commercial crossings remain below recent averages. Agriculture Security: Iraq says it reached self-sufficiency in wheat (third straight season) and dates in 2026, supported by climate-tolerant seeds and subsidized irrigation. Regional Trade Signals: Jordan’s Amman Chamber reports export certificates rising 20.7% to JD1.031bn in the first eight months, with Iraq the top importer by value. Defense & Industry Link: The US approved a possible $150m sale of Bell 412EPX helicopters to Iraq to boost airlift for troops, medical and logistics transport. Power Sector: Iraq’s Electricity Ministry met GE to discuss expanding the Mansuriya power station and adding combined-cycle units.

Oil Revenues: Iraq’s Ministry of Oil says August crude exports hit about 70 million barrels, bringing nearly $4.5 billion in preliminary revenues, with average daily exports topping 2 million barrels after bottlenecks eased. Fuel Supply & Prices: Iraq’s Oil Minister says gasoline shipments are on the way and consumption is being closely monitored, as fuel queues persist and the ministry points to a production-versus-demand gap plus delayed tanker arrivals. Agri Self-Sufficiency: Iraq announced wheat and date self-sufficiency for 2026, citing new salt- and climate-tolerant seed varieties and long-term subsidized irrigation support, alongside a rise in date palms to about 22 million. Transport & Energy Transition: Baghdad’s “Green Taxi” plan is moving forward amid the gasoline crunch, with charging facilities planned and a possible contract to import thousands of electric taxis. Trade & Industry Links: Iraq and Syria held talks to boost trade, with emphasis on expanding Iraqi cement and asphalt exports to Syrian markets. Power Sector Governance: An Iraqi lawmaker warns corruption in electricity contracts is fueled by weak procurement oversight, pushing for new “internal oversight” rules before contracts are signed. Construction & Services: Budget delays are stalling Karbala school projects, leaving the province owing contractors and facing major overcrowding pressures.

Iraq Heritage Under Pressure: Iraq’s State Board of Antiquities and Heritage denied claims that archaeological sites are being destroyed for housing, saying projects can only proceed after rescue excavation, documentation, and clearance under Iraqi law. Oil & Shipping Shockwaves: Renewed US-Iran fighting is keeping Strait of Hormuz risk high, with oil prices on track for their steepest weekly gain since mid-July and diesel hitting record highs—raising costs that ripple into transport and industry. Regional Air and Logistics Disruption: Flight delays and cancellations continue as the US-Iran escalation affects air corridors, including routes into and out of Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Iraq’s Industrial Push: Iraq is moving on pipeline and export capacity plans, including studies for a Basra–Haditha network and efforts to expand crude export outlets. Food Supply Signals: Rice prices are rising on tighter supplies and weather concerns, with Iraq showing up as a buyer via Turkey and Jordan. Corporate Interest in Iraq: PepsiCo is reportedly expanding regional production with Iraq highlighted as a key focus market.

Iraq’s Oil Security Under Strain: A parliamentary finance official warned that failure to bring weapons under state control could trigger tougher international pressure and even an “economic shutdown” if oil exports are disrupted; Iraq’s crude exports rose to about 2.34m bpd in August, but remain below pre-war levels. Energy Infrastructure Push: Iraq has started studies for a 2m bpd Basra–Haditha–Syria pipeline network to cut reliance on Hormuz routes, with construction estimated at 24–48 months. Gas Development Partnerships: Midland Oil Company is seeking U.S. partners to develop gas fields in Diyala and Anbar, aiming for integrated processing facilities. Agriculture Boost in Nineveh: Two new seed cleaning and treatment lines began operations, lifting Nineveh’s capacity to 30 tons per hour, with added storage to support wheat intake. Food Supply Stress in Fisheries: Iraq’s fish industry is collapsing amid unclear causes of die-offs, with production down sharply since 2018 and lab testing often missing. Regional Conflict Fallout: The U.S.-Iran escalation continues to roil Gulf shipping and energy expectations, keeping markets jumpy and raising costs that can spill into Iraq’s economy.

Rail & Trade Links: Iraq’s Basra–Shalamcheh rail line connecting southern Iraq to Iran’s Khuzestan is reported at 70% completion, with demining finished on 16 km of the Iranian side and plans for a free-trade zone and industrial center at Shalamcheh to boost cross-border industry. Jobs & Oil-Sector Hiring Pressure: In Basra and Al-Anbar, science, engineering, and contract workers staged protests demanding job placements tied to oil and technical qualifications; demonstrators blocked major company gates in Basra and reported forceful dispersal. Gulf Energy Shock Risk: Renewed US-Iran strikes and retaliation are again tightening expectations around Strait of Hormuz shipping, with oil prices swinging near six-week highs as investors weigh supply disruption risk. Industrial Security Tech: The US Marine Corps is seeking high-resolution 3D scanners to detect cracks in body armor plates, signaling more advanced inspection demand across defense supply chains.

Middle East Energy Shock: The US and Iran traded the heaviest strikes since July, with Washington hitting Iran’s southern coast and Tehran firing at US bases across Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, UAE, and Iraq’s Kurdistan region, while Iran accused the US of striking a wedding in Sirik (“war crime”). Oil Market Fallout: Brent settled about 1% higher near $95.6 as Hormuz shipping risk spiked; the Strait’s traffic reportedly fell sharply, and prices swung on fears of supply disruption. Iraq Export Resilience: Despite the Hormuz crisis, Iraq’s oil exports jumped about 73% in August to around 2.34M bpd, helped by steep discounts, smaller tankers, and ship-to-ship transfers off Oman. Opec+ Watch: Reuters reports Opec+ is likely to keep output policy unchanged, with Iraq included among core members. Regional Diplomacy: Qatar reiterated support for de-escalation and freedom of maritime navigation as the crisis deepened.

Kurdistan Security: Iran carried out drone and missile attacks targeting the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDPI) dissident group near Erbil, with IRGC-linked media also claiming strikes on US forces in Iraq’s autonomous Kurdistan region, as the US-Iran standoff intensifies. Regional Escalation: The US and Iran traded retaliatory strikes after renewed US attacks on Iranian military targets near the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran accusing the US of bombing a wedding in Sirik (killing at least five and wounding dozens) and the US denying civilian targeting. Iraq Energy Watch: Iraq’s oil exports rebounded to about 2.34 million bpd in August, up from roughly 1.35 million bpd in July, helped by more tankers loading at Iraqi terminals as Hormuz disruption eased. Oilfield Engineering: The Iraqi Drilling Company completed a 4,152m horizontal well (EBS-157) in South East Baghdad, marking a technical milestone for directional drilling in complex reservoirs. Defense-Industry Link: The US approved an $800M military helicopter sale to Iraq, while the wider conflict keeps pressure on regional security and logistics.